Analysts predict each California sports activities betting questions headed for defeat – The Nevada Unbiased

Analysts predict each California sports activities betting questions headed for defeat – The Nevada Unbiased

California would generate greater than $3.1 billion in annual sports activities betting income if two competing questions are authorized by voters on Nov. 8, in keeping with analysts at Southern California-based Eilers & Krejcik Gaming.

However do not depend on that occuring.

Analysts consider the percentages level to each measures failing.

Neither query, they predict, will garner greater than the 50 p.c of votes wanted for passage.

“The political energy and deep pockets of vested pursuits with the canine on this hunt … make us lean negatively on the prospects of legalizing California sports activities betting this fall,” Eilers & Krejcik analysts Becca Giden, Chris Krafcik and Adam Krejcik wrote in a analysis report printed final week that appears at proposition 26 and proposition 27.

They are saying competing messages from tribal casinos, on-line sports activities betting operators and sports activities leagues, together with the introduction of poll questions, are complicated voters greater than sending constructive messages.

Proposition 26, which is backed by a coalition of almost two dozen Indian tribes, would solely authorize in-person sports activities betting at tribal casinos and horse racing tracks. Proposition 27 is supported by seven sports activities betting operators, together with DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM, and would enable on-line sports activities betting corporations to supply cellular betting all through California in partnership with tribal casinos.

Indian tribes and different stakeholders have thus far spent a complete of $364 million for and in opposition to poll questions with typically vitriolic language. A further million {dollars} is predicted to be spent over the subsequent two months. The determine has already damaged data for probably the most spent on a nationwide referendum marketing campaign.

However the stakes are excessive.

Eilers & Krejcik projected that on-line sports activities betting would generate $2.8 billion in annual income, whereas retail sportsbooks alone would generate $1.3 billion – $3.1 billion mixed. That determine is larger than the $2.3 billion analysts predicted for Texas if the state legalized the exercise and the $1.3 billion from a mature sports activities betting market in Illinois, the place the exercise is authorized in casinos and on-line.

Analysts mentioned the transfer to on-line sports activities betting would instantly be dominated by three corporations — DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM — which might account for 70 p.c of the market. Corporations are already promoting within the state via varied sports activities radio and tv networks and workforce sponsorships.

Caesars Sportsbook has taken a impartial stance on the 2 poll questions due to mother or father firm Caesars Leisure’s working partnership with two tribal casinos in California.

Moreover, the net sports activities betting measure would require the cost of a $100 million licensing payment, “and a small variety of operators supporting that measure are positioned to satisfy these necessities.”

Eilers & Krejcik predicted that the passage of Proposition 27 might result in consolidation within the sports activities betting sector with “severe entrants”, reminiscent of Fanatics, ESPN and Bet365, becoming a member of different operators, together with Rush Road Interactive or PointsBet.

The consulting agency additionally warned voters to “learn the fantastic print” on each poll questions.

Proposition 26 would enable tribal casinos so as to add cube and roulette video games, that are at present outlawed. The tribal measure additionally prohibits sports activities betting on video games involving California schools and universities, and the ten p.c gaming tax fee would apply solely to horse racing tracks that add retail sports activities books.

Proposition 27 would tax the full wagers, however solely after deducting winnings paid, promotional credit and federal excise tax funds. The measure permits betting on video games involving California schools and universities. Analysts mentioned the mass facets of on-line betting are fairly favorable for sports activities betting operators.

Sports activities betting poll questions have handed in Arkansas, Colorado, South Dakota, Louisiana and Maryland because the Supreme Court docket dominated in 2018 that states might legalize the exercise. Analysts Eilers & Krejcik, nevertheless, fear that the streak might break from California.

“Two competing sports activities betting measures occurring back-to-back on the identical poll is unprecedented in US sports activities betting political historical past, complicating efforts to foretell their final result,” the analysts wrote.

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